OPEC+ has agreed to a small oil output increase for December, followed by a pause in production hikes during the first quarter of next year, as the group grows cautious about a potential global oversupply.
Since April, OPEC+ has raised its output targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day (roughly 2.7% of global supply), but started slowing down in October amid forecasts of a looming glut.
New Western sanctions on Russia have further complicated the strategy, as Moscow might struggle to raise output after the U.S. and U.K. imposed new measures on Rosneft and Lukoil.
At Sunday’s meeting, eight OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria — agreed to a 137,000 bpd increase for December, the same as in October and November. After that, they will pause production hikes from January through March 2026 due to weaker seasonal demand.
Oil prices, which fell to a five-month low of around $60 a barrel on October 20, have since recovered to about $65, supported by the Russian sanctions and optimism around U.S. trade talks.
Analysts said the pause is a strategic move.
“OPEC+ is blinking — but it’s a calculated blink,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad. “By pausing, the group protects prices, shows unity, and gains time to see how sanctions affect Russian barrels.”
The first quarter is typically the weakest for oil demand, so by holding off, OPEC+ is signaling proactive market management.
The group is scheduled to meet again on November 30, coinciding with a full OPEC+ meeting.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/
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